New staff, wider error bars. When a team changes head coach or
coordinator, last season tells us less about this one. Those teams get pulled toward the league
average and their games are flagged. We do not guess whether the new coach is better or worse,
only that we know less than usual.
We label toss-ups before the game, not after. Games projected inside a one-score margin are genuinely close to a coin flip: in 2025 our smallest-margin picks won just 61% of the time, and 16% of all Missouri games were decided by 7 points or less. Calling those honestly up front matters more than protecting a percentage. Each tier below shows how often that tier actually won last season.
TOSS-UP won 61% in 2025
LEAN 77%
FAVORED 85%
STRONG 92%
HEAVY 96%
NEW STAFF new head coach or coordinator
Schedule coverage: 111 games predicted so far, 33 of them toss-ups.
A full regular season is 9 games (some schools play 8); playoff pairings are not set yet.
Right now 51 teams have posted a full slate, 73 have posted part of one, and 432 have not posted yet.
This page fills in automatically as schools publish.
| Matchup | Projected winner | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 | |||
| Collinsville at Althoff | Althoff | by 19 | FAVORED89% |
| Columbia at Mater Dei | Mater Dei | by 12 | LEAN78% |
| Dupo at Alton Marquette | Dupo | by 7 | LEAN69% |
| Triad at Highland | Highland | by 0 | TOSS-UP50% |
| 08-28 | |||
| Mehlville at Fox | Fox | by 29 | HEAVY96% |
| Bayless at Dupo | Dupo | by 23 | STRONG92% |
| Edwardsville at Jackson | Jackson | by 21 | STRONG91% |
| Centralia, Illinois at Civic Memorial | Centralia, Illinois | by 19 | FAVORED89% |
| Breese Central at Columbia | Breese Central | by 15 | FAVORED84% |
| O'Fallon at Francis Howell | Francis Howell | by 12 | LEAN79% |
| Staley at St. Joseph Central | Staley | by 11 | LEAN77% |
| Althoff at Highland | Althoff | by 8 | LEAN72% |
| Waterloo at Freeburg | Freeburg | by 5 | TOSS-UP63% |
| Parkway South at Parkway Central | Parkway Central | by 4 | TOSS-UP62% |
| Eureka at Troy Buchanan | Eureka | by 2 | TOSS-UP56% |
| 08-29 | |||
| Red Bud at Alton Marquette | Alton Marquette | by 3 | TOSS-UP59% |
| 09-04 | |||
| Civic Memorial at Breese Central | Breese Central | by 27 | HEAVY95% |
| Jerseyville at Centralia, Illinois | Centralia, Illinois | by 18 | FAVORED89% |
| St. Joseph Central at St. Joseph Benton | St. Joseph Central | by 17 | FAVORED87% |
| Parkway West at Parkway South | Parkway West | by 15 | FAVORED84% |
| Columbia at Waterloo | Waterloo | by 13 | LEAN80% |
| Troy Buchanan at O'Fallon | Troy Buchanan | by 11 | LEAN77% |
| Principia at Alton Marquette | Principia | by 10 | LEAN75% |
| Fox at Northwest Cedar Hill | Northwest Cedar Hill | by 8 | LEAN72% |
| Highland at Mascoutah | Mascoutah | by 7 | LEAN69% |
| Festus at St. Mary's | St. Mary's | by 6 | TOSS-UP65% |
| Belleville West at Marion | Belleville West | by 5 | TOSS-UP64% |
| Belleville East at Althoff | Belleville East | by 3 | TOSS-UP59% |
| 09-10 | |||
| Parkway South at Clayton | Parkway South | by 21 | STRONG91% |
| 09-11 | |||
| O'Fallon at East St. Louis | East St. Louis | by 38 | HEAVY98% |
| St. Joseph Central at Liberty (KC) | Liberty (KC) | by 30 | HEAVY96% |
| Hazelwood West at Fox | Fox | by 18 | FAVORED88% |
| Civic Memorial at Jerseyville | Jerseyville | by 8 | LEAN70% |
| Cahokia at St. Mary's | St. Mary's | by 6 | LEAN67% |
| Wesclin at Dupo | Dupo | by 6 | LEAN67% |
| Breese Central at Waterloo | Breese Central | by 5 | TOSS-UP64% |
| Mascoutah at Belleville West | Belleville West | by 5 | TOSS-UP62% |
| Hannibal at Troy Buchanan | Hannibal | by 4 | TOSS-UP61% |
| Marion at Highland | Highland | by 3 | TOSS-UP60% |
| Mater Dei at Roxana | Roxana | by 2 | TOSS-UP56% |
| Edwardsville at Belleville East | Belleville East | by 1 | TOSS-UP53% |
| Centralia, Illinois at Freeburg | Freeburg | by 1 | TOSS-UP51% |
| 09-17 | |||
| Troy Buchanan at Francis Howell Central | Troy Buchanan | by 22 | STRONG92% |
| 09-18 | |||
| Belleville East at East St. Louis | East St. Louis | by 30 | HEAVY97% |
| Alton Marquette at Mater Dei | Mater Dei | by 27 | HEAVY95% |
| Jerseyville at Breese Central | Breese Central | by 22 | STRONG92% |
| Columbia at Centralia, Illinois | Centralia, Illinois | by 17 | FAVORED86% |
| Freeburg at Civic Memorial | Freeburg | by 17 | FAVORED86% |
| St. Mary's at Jackson | Jackson | by 13 | FAVORED82% |
| Webster Groves at Parkway South | Parkway South | by 11 | LEAN78% |
| Roxana at Althoff | Althoff | by 9 | LEAN73% |
| Belleville West at O'Fallon | O'Fallon | by 5 | TOSS-UP64% |
| Triad at Mascoutah | Mascoutah | by 5 | TOSS-UP62% |
| Oak Park at St. Joseph Central | Oak Park | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| Fox at Ladue | Ladue | by 3 | TOSS-UP57% |
| 09-25 | |||
| Althoff at Alton Marquette | Althoff | by 28 | HEAVY96% |
| Saxony Lutheran at Mater Dei | Mater Dei | by 26 | STRONG95% |
| East St. Louis at Edwardsville | East St. Louis | by 24 | STRONG93% |
| Parkway South at Oakville | Oakville | by 18 | FAVORED88% |
| Jerseyville at Freeburg | Freeburg | by 17 | FAVORED86% |
| Fox at Seckman | Seckman | by 15 | FAVORED83% |
| Red Bud at Dupo | Dupo | by 13 | LEAN81% |
| Belleville West at Belleville East | Belleville East | by 13 | LEAN80% |
| Fort Zumwalt West at Troy Buchanan | Troy Buchanan | by 11 | LEAN77% |
| Civic Memorial at Columbia | Columbia | by 9 | LEAN74% |
| Triad at O'Fallon | O'Fallon | by 9 | LEAN74% |
| Mascoutah at Collinsville | Mascoutah | by 7 | LEAN70% |
| Centralia, Illinois at Waterloo | Centralia, Illinois | by 2 | TOSS-UP54% |
| Park Hill South at St. Joseph Central | Park Hill South | by 1 | TOSS-UP52% |
| 10-02 | |||
| Francis Howell North at Troy Buchanan | Troy Buchanan | by 40 | HEAVY99% |
| East St. Louis at Belleville West | East St. Louis | by 35 | HEAVY98% |
| St. Joseph Central at Lee's Summit North | Lee's Summit North | by 29 | HEAVY96% |
| Marion at Cahokia | Cahokia | by 25 | STRONG94% |
| Collinsville at Belleville East | Belleville East | by 25 | STRONG94% |
| Waterloo at Civic Memorial | Waterloo | by 15 | FAVORED83% |
| Northwest Cedar Hill at Parkway South | Northwest Cedar Hill | by 14 | FAVORED83% |
| O'Fallon at Edwardsville | Edwardsville | by 11 | LEAN77% |
| Red Bud at Wesclin | Wesclin | by 9 | LEAN73% |
| Freeburg at Breese Central | Breese Central | by 8 | LEAN71% |
| Parkway West at Fox | Parkway West | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| Althoff at Mater Dei | Althoff | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| St. Mary's at Lift for Life | St. Mary's | by 3 | TOSS-UP59% |
| Columbia at Jerseyville | Jerseyville | by 1 | TOSS-UP52% |
| 10-09 | |||
| Pacific at St. Mary's | St. Mary's | by 33 | HEAVY98% |
| Alton Marquette at Roxana | Roxana | by 27 | STRONG95% |
| Highland at Cahokia | Cahokia | by 24 | STRONG94% |
| Fox at Kirkwood | Kirkwood | by 22 | STRONG92% |
| St. Joseph Central at Park Hill | Park Hill | by 20 | STRONG90% |
| Jerseyville at Waterloo | Waterloo | by 14 | FAVORED83% |
| Collinsville at Triad | Triad | by 10 | LEAN76% |
| Freeburg at Columbia | Freeburg | by 10 | LEAN75% |
| Edwardsville at Belleville West | Edwardsville | by 9 | LEAN73% |
| McCluer at Parkway South | Parkway South | by 8 | LEAN72% |
| Centralia, Illinois at Breese Central | Breese Central | by 6 | TOSS-UP66% |
| Belleville East at O'Fallon | Belleville East | by 5 | TOSS-UP63% |
| Troy Buchanan at Francis Howell | Troy Buchanan | by 1 | TOSS-UP53% |
| 10-16 | |||
| Freeburg at Red Bud | Freeburg | by 26 | STRONG95% |
| Riverview Gardens at Fox | Fox | by 25 | STRONG94% |
| Edwardsville at Collinsville | Edwardsville | by 21 | STRONG91% |
| Grain Valley at St. Joseph Central | Grain Valley | by 15 | FAVORED84% |
| Belleville East at Mascoutah | Belleville East | by 10 | LEAN74% |
| Highland at Waterloo | Waterloo | by 8 | LEAN72% |
| Liberty (Wentzville) at Troy Buchanan | Troy Buchanan | by 6 | LEAN67% |
| De Smet at St. Mary's | De Smet | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| McCluer North at Parkway South | Parkway South | by 2 | TOSS-UP56% |
| Belleville West at Triad | Belleville West | by 2 | TOSS-UP54% |
| 10-22 | |||
| Parkway South vs Mehlville | Parkway South | by 15 | FAVORED84% |
| 10-23 | |||
| St. Joseph Central at North Kansas City | North Kansas City | by 17 | FAVORED86% |
| Fox at Parkway Central | Fox | by 7 | LEAN68% |
| Troy Buchanan at Fort Zumwalt North | Fort Zumwalt North | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| Rock Bridge at St. Mary's | St. Mary's | by 1 | TOSS-UP52% |