2026 Preseason Missouri Football Power Rankings
Projected 2026 strength blends three measured components: the final 2025 power rating (SRS over 2,046 games statewide), progression-weighted returning production (graduated seniors removed; each returning player's production weighted by measured development curves — rising sophomores grow ~3.7x, rising juniors ~1.5x, rising seniors ~1.2x), and a program prior (three-season strength history, which captures reload programs that restock through transfers and feeder pipelines). Weights fitted on 2019–2024 transitions (n=451), window chosen by cross-validation (5 years beat 1, 3, and 8); the model beats naive carryover on held-out data (MAE 7.38 vs 8.10). Development curves measured from 2.9M production units: rising sophomores x2.15, juniors x1.66, seniors x1.22. *Returning = progression-weighted; est = roster data incomplete, regressed toward mean.
Read this first: preseason rankings are a starting line, not a verdict. The model's known blind spot is transfers and incoming freshmen — it only sees players who produced varsity stats last season. Blue Springs South opens #1 after the most dominant 2025 in the state. The Reload column is new: programs that beat their returning-talent projection year after year (transfers, elite freshmen, feeder pipelines) earn a measured bonus — Cardinal Ritter (+4.3/season over 8 years), St. Dominic (+4.2), De Smet (+2.9), CBC (+2.1) all earned theirs from history, not reputation. Validation: adding reload left holdout accuracy unchanged (MAE 7.39 vs 7.38), so it costs nothing predictively and aligns preseason ranks with how these programs actually behave. Known transfers can still be credited via editorial adjustment. These rankings re-rate every week once games begin.
Missouri Preseason Top 25
| Rk | Team | Class 2026 | 2025 Rec | 2025 SRS | Reload | Returning* | 2026 Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Blue Springs South | C6 | 9-1 | +66.6 | +0.0 | est | +61.7 |
| 2 | Nixa | C6 | 13-1 | +56.1 | +0.0 | est | +52.5 |
| 3 | Platte County | C5 | 14-0 | +60.3 | +0.0 | est | +50.8 |
| 4 | Rockhurst | C6 ↑C5 | 9-3 | +49.0 | +0.0 | est | +48.9 |
| 5 | Blue Springs | C6 | 8-4 | +51.5 | +0.0 | est | +47.1 |
| 6 | Liberty (KC) | C6 | 10-2 | +52.0 | +0.0 | est | +47.0 |
| 7 | Carthage | C5 | 12-2 | +50.4 | +0.0 | est | +46.7 |
| 8 | Lee's Summit | C6 | 10-4 | +49.9 | +0.0 | est | +46.0 |
| 9 | Lee's Summit North | C6 | 6-4 | +46.4 | +0.0 | est | +45.7 |
| 10 | Liberty North | C6 | 7-5 | +48.2 | +0.0 | est | +45.5 |
| 11 | CBC | C6 | 11-1 | +63.8 | +0.0 | 30% | +45.4 |
| 12 | Cardinal Ritter | C5 | 9-4 | +44.1 | +0.0 | 80% | +43.7 |
| 13 | Jackson | C6 | 12-1 | +54.9 | +0.0 | est | +42.5 |
| 14 | Kearney | C4 | 14-0 | +47.2 | +0.0 | est | +42.3 |
| 15 | Helias | C5 ↓C6 | 11-1 | +45.9 | +0.0 | est | +41.5 |
| 16 | Republic | C5 | 9-3 | +47.0 | +0.0 | est | +41.0 |
| 17 | De Smet | C6 | 6-5 | +33.4 | +0.0 | 75% | +35.5 |
| 18 | Webb City | C5 | 7-4 | +38.9 | +0.0 | est | +35.5 |
| 19 | Seneca | C3 | 13-1 | +34.9 | +0.0 | est | +34.5 |
| 20 | Park Hill | C6 | 5-5 | +35.4 | +0.0 | est | +33.6 |
| 21 | Grain Valley | C5 | 8-4 | +40.0 | +0.0 | est | +33.4 |
| 22 | Blair Oaks | C2 | 14-0 | +47.7 | +0.0 | est | +33.3 |
| 23 | Hannibal | C4 | 11-3 | +38.7 | +0.0 | est | +31.8 |
| 24 | Lee's Summit West | C6 | 4-7 | +38.0 | +0.0 | est | +31.5 |
| 25 | Joplin | C6 | 5-6 | +33.5 | +0.0 | est | +31.1 |
Which Class Is Moving?
Ranking classes by how good their teams are just reprints the enrollment order — Class 6 has the biggest schools, so it has the best teams, and saying so tells you nothing.
This ranks them by where they are headed, straight out of our 2026 projections.
Momentum is what the returning teams are doing. Composition is what reclassification did to the class before a snap is played.
One correction matters: raw projected change is dominated by regression to the mean, which drags every strong class down and lifts every weak one, reproducing the enrollment order in disguise.
So momentum measures movement beyond what a team's 2025 rating alone predicts. Field strength is shown in grey for context and is deliberately not ranked on.
| Class | Teams | Shift | Momentum | Composition | In/Out | Contenders | Spread | Top-8 | Favorite |
|---|
| Class 5 | 54 | +2.30 | +1.03 | +1.28 | 7/8 | 5 | 21.4 | +40.2 | Platte County |
| Class 3 | 53 | +1.32 | +0.52 | +0.80 | 11/12 | 2 | 24.5 | +18.1 | Seneca |
| Class 6 | 42 | +1.06 | +0.76 | +0.31 | 3/3 | 2 | 16.2 | +49.3 | Blue Springs South |
| Class 2 | 49 | -1.59 | -0.53 | -1.06 | 11/8 | 1 | 25.0 | +15.1 | Blair Oaks |
| Class 4 | 53 | -2.19 | -0.65 | -1.53 | 9/9 | 1 | 28.3 | +24.5 | Kearney |
| Class 1 | 34 | -2.22 | -1.59 | -0.63 | 6/3 | 3 | 27.1 | -1.5 | Marionville |
Shift = momentum + composition, in rating points.
Momentum = mean projected movement of the class, regression to the mean removed.
Composition = shift in the class mean from teams swapping in and out. In/Out = how many.
Contenders = teams within 10 projected points of the class leader.
Spread = #1 minus #8; small means wide open. Top-8 = field strength, the enrollment proxy.
Class 5 is rising fastest, Class 1 is falling fastest. Class 5 projects +2.30 points, +1.03 of it from the teams themselves and +1.28 from reclassification, led by Parkway Central +13, Hazelwood Central +13 and St. Mary's +11. Class 1 goes the other way at -2.22, with Salisbury -9 and Skyline -9. Note that Class 6 has the strongest field in the state by a distance (top-8 average +49.3) and sits mid-table here — that is the point. Enrollment tells you who has the best players, not who is about to get better.
Class 5 is the meat grinder. 5 teams project within one score of the lead — Platte County, Carthage, Cardinal Ritter, Helias and Republic — separated by 10 points top to bottom. No other class has more than 3. That is a separate question from momentum: a class can be falling and still be the hardest one to survive.
Class 3 is the most reshuffled. 11 teams in, 12 out, and 3 of its top six are new arrivals — St. Pius X (KC), Lutheran North and Nevada. Its composition alone moved the class +0.80 points, but Seneca still sits 7 clear and the top-8 spread is 24.5. Unfamiliar is not the same as brutal.
By MSHSAA Class
Classes shown are the official 2026 MSHSAA assignments. Arrows mark teams changing class — ↓C4 means the team was Class 4 in 2025 and drops to a smaller class, ↑C2 means it moves up.
Class 6 — Preseason Top 10
2 live contenders · top-8 spread 16.2 · 23 in the state top 50
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Blue Springs South | 9-1 | est | +61.7 |
| 2 | Nixa | 13-1 | est | +52.5 |
| 3 | Rockhurst ↑C5 | 9-3 | est | +48.9 |
| 4 | Blue Springs | 8-4 | est | +47.1 |
| 5 | Liberty (KC) | 10-2 | est | +47.0 |
| 6 | Lee's Summit | 10-4 | est | +46.0 |
| 7 | Lee's Summit North | 6-4 | est | +45.7 |
| 8 | Liberty North | 7-5 | est | +45.5 |
| 9 | CBC | 11-1 | 30% | +45.4 |
| 10 | Jackson | 12-1 | est | +42.5 |
Class 5 — Preseason Top 10
5 live contenders · top-8 spread 21.4 · 17 in the state top 50
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Platte County | 14-0 | est | +50.8 |
| 2 | Carthage | 12-2 | est | +46.7 |
| 3 | Cardinal Ritter | 9-4 | 80% | +43.7 |
| 4 | Helias ↓C6 | 11-1 | est | +41.5 |
| 5 | Republic | 9-3 | est | +41.0 |
| 6 | Webb City | 7-4 | est | +35.5 |
| 7 | Grain Valley | 8-4 | est | +33.4 |
| 8 | Eureka | 8-3 | 61% | +29.4 |
| 9 | St. Mary's ↑C4 | 9-4 | 95% | +26.8 |
| 10 | Fort Osage | 7-4 | est | +26.5 |
Class 4 — Preseason Top 10
1 live contender · top-8 spread 28.3 · 6 in the state top 50
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Kearney | 14-0 | est | +42.3 |
| 2 | Hannibal | 11-3 | est | +31.8 |
| 3 | Smithville | 8-3 | est | +24.5 |
| 4 | Savannah | 10-2 | est | +22.5 |
| 5 | Festus | 10-3 | est | +22.3 |
| 6 | Parkway North | 10-2 | 70% | +19.7 |
| 7 | Lift for Life ↑C3 | 10-5 | 68% | +18.8 |
| 8 | Carl Junction | 7-5 | est | +14.1 |
| 9 | Warrensburg | 8-4 | est | +11.8 |
| 10 | Odessa | 10-1 | est | +11.3 |
Class 3 — Preseason Top 10
2 live contenders · top-8 spread 24.5 · 2 in the state top 50
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Seneca | 13-1 | est | +34.5 |
| 2 | St. Pius X (KC) ↓C5 | 6-5 | est | +27.1 |
| 3 | Lutheran North ↓C4 | 6-4 | 83% | +17.1 |
| 4 | Maryville | 9-3 | est | +16.4 |
| 5 | Nevada ↓C4 | 8-4 | est | +15.3 |
| 6 | Cassville | 8-4 | est | +13.0 |
| 7 | St. Pius X (Festus) ↑C2 | 9-6 | 122% | +11.8 |
| 8 | Mountain Grove | 10-2 | est | +10.0 |
| 9 | MICDS ↓C5 | 5-5 | 68% | +9.8 |
| 10 | Mount Vernon | 6-5 | est | +9.3 |
Class 2 — Preseason Top 10
1 live contender · top-8 spread 25.0 · 2 in the state top 50
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Blair Oaks | 14-0 | est | +33.3 |
| 2 | Valle Catholic ↓C3 | 10-1 | est | +21.7 |
| 3 | Lamar | 8-4 | est | +15.9 |
| 4 | Monroe City | 11-2 | est | +12.1 |
| 5 | Tolton | 8-3 | est | +11.8 |
| 6 | Mid-Buchanan | 11-1 | est | +9.2 |
| 7 | Mountain View-Liberty | 10-3 | est | +8.5 |
| 8 | Centralia, Mo. | 10-2 | est | +8.3 |
| 9 | Holden | 9-3 | est | +0.6 |
| 10 | North Callaway | 8-2 | est | -1.1 |
Class 1 — Preseason Top 10
3 live contenders · top-8 spread 27.1 · 0 in the state top 50
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Marionville | 9-2 | est | +11.4 |
| 2 | Tipton | 13-1 | est | +9.0 |
| 3 | Thayer | 10-2 | est | +6.3 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 11-1 | est | -3.2 |
| 5 | Putnam County | 13-1 | est | -3.7 |
| 6 | Ash Grove | 6-2 | est | -7.5 |
| 7 | Adrian | 8-4 | est | -8.7 |
| 8 | Russellville | 8-3 | est | -15.7 |
| 9 | Windsor (Sedalia) | 9-2 | est | -16.3 |
| 10 | North Platte | 6-5 | est | -16.7 |
How we grade ourselves: our engine called 81.2% of winners in a walk-forward backtest of the last three Missouri seasons (4,643 games, each week predicted using only the games played before it), with calibrated win probabilities. The backtest is reproducible from the repo (backtest.py) and the weekly accuracy tracker runs all season.